Gboyega OlorunfemiFrom Roadmaps to Results: Why COP31 Must Deliver Africa’s Circular Economy Transition – Gboyega Olorunfemi
For nearly three decades, climate negotiations remained focused largely on energy, forests, adaptation and finance. COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye is offering an important shift, and for the first time, the circular economy has been elevated from the sidelines to the official UN Climate Change Action Agenda, recognising that achieving the Paris Agreement is impossible without fundamentally changing how the world produces, consumes and manages materials.
The COP31 Action Agenda sets ambitious goals by increasing the global recycling rate from the current 6.9 per cent to at least 15 per cent by 2035 while at the same time reducing the growth of municipal solid waste generation by at least 50%. These targets acknowledge an uncomfortable truth that decarbonising energy systems alone will not be enough. Since nearly half of global greenhouse gas emissions are linked to the extraction, processing and disposal of materials; therefore, addressing waste and resource efficiency is central to climate action.
For Africa, this represents more than another international commitment - It is an opportunity to reposition waste from being a public health and environmental liability into an engine for industrialisation, green jobs and climate resilience. Across the continent, waste management remains one of the most visible failures of urban governance. From the tragic collapse of the Koshe dumpsite in Addis Ababa in 2017, which claimed over 100 lives; and the Kiteezi landfill collapse in Kampala that killed dozens of residents in August 2024 and the Dar Es Salam landfill collapse in Conakry, Guinea in August 2026 killing over 30 people – these occurrences serve as painful reminders of the human cost of poor waste management.
The African Union’s adoption of Continental Circular Economy Action Plan (2024–2034) confirms that almost every African country already has at least one policy related to circular economy principles. Many countries including Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire have developed or are implementing national circular economy roadmaps. At the moment, most national circular economy roadmaps lack dedicated financing mechanisms, investment pipelines, measurable implementation frameworks and institutional coordination.
The Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have been engaging the Circular Economy landscape: the African Development Bank (AfDB) emergence as one of the continent’s leading champions through the Africa Circular Economy Facility (ACEF) – the Africa’s only dedicated multi-donor trust fund. The Afreximbank is also supporting regional value chains for secondary raw materials and circular manufacturing under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while the World Bank has continued to finance urban resilience, solid waste management and pollution reduction programmes across several African countries that can be strengthened through circular economy principles.
Recent continental analyses estimate that Africa’s circular economy could generate approximately US$546 billion annually while creating more than 11 million green jobs by 2030 across recycling, repair, remanufacturing, sustainable agriculture, construction, textiles, electronics and industrial symbiosis.
As COP31 opens, African governments should use Antalya to commit to launch the African Circular Economy Investment Initiative (ACEII) that will complement existing roadmaps convened by MDBs, Private Sector, Think-tanks, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and other donors. Every circular economy strategy should be matched with bankable project pipelines, innovative financing instruments, public-private partnerships and measurable implementation milestones.
Circular economy principles should also be fully integrated into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans, industrial policies and municipal development strategies rather than being treated solely as waste management programmes. Regional value chains under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) should prioritise recycled materials, repair industries, secondary raw materials and green manufacturing to reduce import dependence while creating decent jobs across the region.
Equally important is strengthening Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems, digital product traceability, waste segregation, recycling infrastructure and the formal integration of waste pickers - whose contributions to material recovery remain largely unrecognised despite underpinning much of Africa’s recycling economy. Climate finance institutions, including MDBs, green investment funds and domestic financial institutions, must also provide concessional finance for circular economy projects while Waste management, recycling infrastructure and resource efficiency should no longer compete at the margins of climate finance but as catalyst for zero waste and methane reduction.
Looking ahead to COP32 in Addis Ababa in 2027, Africa has a unique opportunity to demonstrate global leadership. Rather than arriving with another collection of strategies, African countries should present measurable implementation results: financed circular economy projects, functioning recycling value chains, stronger municipal waste systems, thriving circular enterprises and evidence that circularity is delivering jobs, resilience and emissions reductions. While the inclusion of circular economy in the COP31 Action Agenda is historic and an open door, the evaluation will be measured by whether existing policy and plans is transforming dumpsites into industries, waste into wealth, and environmental liabilities into engines of inclusive green growth.
